On Thursday, Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash 38 people were killed and 29 survivors were injuredWith speculation growing about the cause of the disaster, including whether possible Russian air defense operations played a role.
The Azerbaijani Embraer Airlines plane 190 was on its way from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when its course was diverted, for reasons that are still unclear, and it crashed while trying to land in Aktau, western Kazakhstan. After flying east across the Caspian Sea. The plane went down about two miles from Aktau.
A US official told CBS News there were early indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have hit the plane. The official, who requested that his identity not be revealed publicly, said that if these indicators prove correct, they will further confirm Russian recklessness in its invasion of Ukraine.
Mobile phone footage, which was circulated online, showed the plane descending heavily before crashing into the ground in the form of a fireball. Other footage and photos showed part of the plane’s fuselage torn from the wings and the back half of the plane lying upside down on the grass.
Isa Tazinbayev/AFP via Getty Images
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the accident, but said the weather forced the plane to change its planned route.
He added, “The information available to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to bad weather conditions and headed to Aktau Airport, where it crashed upon landing.”
The Russian Civil Aviation Authority, Rozavyatsia, said that preliminary information indicates that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird collision led to an emergency on board the plane.
What happened next also remains unclear.
A regional official in Kazakhstan appeared to admit on Thursday that the investigation is looking into whether Russian air defenses were the ones that shot down the plane. Reuters news agency reported that Mangystau Regional Transport Prosecutor, Abilbek Ordabayev, said they had not yet reached any conclusions about whether this was the case.
Russian anti-aircraft systems are under investigation
As the official investigation into the crash began, theories abounded about a possible cause, with some analysts claiming that holes seen in the plane’s tail section may indicate it may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems, such as those used to fend off Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian province of Chechnya, and other areas in the country’s North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed another drone attack in Chechnya on Wednesday, although this has not been officially confirmed.
Yan Matveev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the tail of the crashed plane reveal damage consistent with fragments of small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.
He added, “It appears that the back of the plane was damaged by missile fragments.”
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its clients that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides an analysis of which airlines are still flying to Russia after Western airlines grounded flights during that period War in Ukraine.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company issued more than 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives have been lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Agence France-Presse quoted Russian military expert Yuri Podolyaka as saying that the holes seen in the wreckage of the plane resemble those that might be left by an “anti-aircraft missile system.” “Everything points to that,” he wrote.
Kamila Jomaeva/AFP via Getty Images
Gerard Legoffre, a former expert at France’s air accident investigation agency BEA, said there appeared to be significant shrapnel damage in the wreckage, according to AFP.
He described it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was originally a passenger plane It was shot down by a surface-to-air missile by Russian-backed rebels Eastern Ukraine in 2014.
But when asked about allegations that the plane came under fire from air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakh Parliament Speaker Molen Ashimbaev also warned against rushing to conclusions based on images of the plane’s fragments, and described allegations of air defense launches as baseless and “immoral.”
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan similarly avoided commenting on the possible cause of the crash, saying it was up to investigators to determine.
National flags were lowered across Azerbaijan on Thursday, traffic across the country came to a halt at noon and signals were sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide minute of silence.
She contributed to this report.
