Ukrainian forces have killed or wounded more than 1,000 North Korean soldiers sent by Russia to fight them, according to Kiev and South Korean officials.
“According to preliminary data, the number of dead and wounded North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region already exceeds 3,000 people,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening speech on December 23.
South Korean intelligence estimated the number of North Koreans killed and wounded at about 1,100, and said that the North was preparing to send more troops. North Korea sent 11,000 troops to fight in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a counter-invasion in August.
It is clear that North Korean forces were not trained to deal with Ukrainian drones, which led to heavy losses. In one case, Ukrainian drone operators recorded how a North Korean soldier accidentally shot his comrade while trying to shoot down the drone that was filming them.
They may have been trying to carry out a tactic described in a notebook recovered from the body of a North Korean soldier.
“When a drone is detected, you need to create a trio, where the person who attracts the drone maintains a distance of seven metres, and the one who shoots it, maintains a distance of 10-12 metres.” “If the person luring stops, the drone will also stop its movement. At this moment, the person shooting will eliminate the drone.
Ukrainian special operations forces said on the Telegram app that its 8th regiment killed 77 North Koreans in Kursk and wounded 40 others within three days, without specifying the location. A video released by the regiment showed drones attacking individual enemy forces. Their signal cuts off at close range, signaling the moment the drones explode.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarrassed by the seizure of Russian territory for the first time since World War II, and he had initially pledged to expel Ukrainian forces by October 1.
As the deadline approached, its spokesman changed the Kremlin’s position, saying Ukrainian forces would be expelled “at the appropriate time.” Putin reinforced this ambiguity at an annual press conference held on December 19. He said: “I cannot and do not want to set a specific date when they will be eliminated from the tournament.”
Some analysts have suggested this may signal a change in the Kremlin’s priorities, but Russia also appears to be making a concerted effort to improve its tactics on Christmas Eve.
Oleg Chaos, a Ukrainian sergeant fighting in Kursk, said that while Russian attacks over the past month had been “chaotic” and “disorganized,” three units attacked in an organized manner and with air support on December 24.
“All the soldiers of these three groups had high-quality ammunition. Each of them carried disposable grenade launchers, night vision devices, and they had small assault backpacks,” said a sergeant from the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine. “If one of those three groups had not been destroyed, they would have kept moving.”
It appears that these units included North Korean forces.
Russia marches forward into Donetsk
Ukraine’s other hot front – the eastern Donetsk region – saw intense fighting over the Christmas holidays.
The Ukrainian General Staff said Russia launched 248 attacks on Ukrainian positions on December 24, an unusually high number, followed by more than 200 attacks on Christmas Day.
During this time, geolocation footage indicated that Russian forces penetrated the western part of Korakhov, which they had first entered in late October, to complete their occupation.
Fierce battles are also continuing for the central mine in the city of Turetsk, said Anastasia Popovnikova, a spokeswoman for Luhansk Technical University.
However, the most intense fighting appears to have occurred around the town of Pokrovsk, where a quarter to a fifth of the Russian attacks occurred.
“Pokrovsk is a vital road and rail hub, facilitating the movement of troops and supplies across eastern Ukraine,” Dimitris Andrew Grimes, a former US Navy officer, pilot and diplomat, told Al Jazeera.
He added: “Control of Pokrovsk will disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and strengthen Russian operational capabilities in transporting and distributing supplies across the entire front line.”
“The goal is likely to be to secure the rest of Donbass and Zaporizhia,” said Michael Gerstad, a land warfare research analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“This means potentially seizing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which include important industrial and economic sites for Ukraine, and perhaps a move toward Zaporizhzhya along the N15 from the Kurakhov enclave, which would also bypass much of the Ukrainian defenses facing south.” He told Al Jazeera.
These assaults were also costly, while seizing territory. Popovnikova said that Russian forces are losing a mechanized battalion weekly and a brigade monthly in Turetsk.
In the 10 days between December 17 and 26, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated that Russia lost 17,400 soldiers, which translates to 52,200 soldiers per month. The recruitment capacity in Russia is considered no more than 30 thousand per month.
However, Putin sounded optimistic in his press conference. “We’re not talking about going 100, 200, 300 metres; Our fighters are regaining territory measuring square kilometers.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russia captured 3,306 square kilometers (1,276 square miles) of Ukrainian territory during 2024.
“The location of the front line will not be what defines this war,” said Keir Giles, an Eurasia expert at Chatham House.
“In the economic and political spheres, in Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and systems keeping people alive through the winter, it is also an image of Russia having an advantage, especially after the arrival of Donald Trump,” he told Al Jazeera. In reference to Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections in November. Trump has said he wants to end the war immediately, and senior members of his team, including Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, have indicated that Ukraine will need to cede territory currently controlled by Russia as part of a ceasefire.
Russia demonstrated its air dominance on December 25, with a massive air attack that included 78 missiles of various types and 106 “suicide witness” drones. Ukrainian defenses shot down 113 targets out of 184, but many of them hit energy infrastructure.
“Today, Putin deliberately chose Christmas to launch an attack. What could be more brutal?” In his evening speech on the same day, Zelensky said:
“The targets are our energy sector. They continue to struggle with blackouts in Ukraine.”
Five days earlier, on December 20, Russia fired five ballistic missiles at Kiev. Ukraine said it shot down the five planes, but falling debris hit a building housing several embassies. It was part of a broader attack overnight that included a sixth missile and 65 drones.
Zelensky is demanding increasing numbers of defense systems from his NATO allies. On December 19, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance would discuss how to provide the systems Zelensky sought.
Four days later, Germany announced a massive new military aid package, including two Patriot air defense launchers – each carrying four missiles, two IRIS-T SLS short-range launchers, and one IRIS-T SLM medium-range launcher, carrying Each has eight missiles.
The announced package also includes two Skynex 35 mm air defense batteries and ammunition for all these air defense systems.
Next year, Ukraine is expected to receive four more IRIS-T SLM batteries, each containing three launchers and three IRIS-T SLS launchers.
During his press conference, Putin challenged the West to a contest between its new Oreshnik ballistic missile – launched at Ukraine for the first time on November 21 – and Western air defense systems.
“Let Western experts propose to us… to conduct some kind of technological experiment, for example, a high-tech duel in the 21st century. Let them identify some target to destroy, for example in Kiev, and concentrate all air defense and missile defense forces there, and we will strike there with Arshnik.” We will see what happens. We are ready for such an experience, but is the other party ready?
Deep Ukraine strikes
Ukraine also hit Russian energy and defense sites.
On December 19, Ukrainian military intelligence said its saboteurs set fire to “several” military refueling stations in Novosibirsk, destroying them.
On the same day, the Moscow Times reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, the largest in southern Russia, forced the refinery to halt operations.
GUR also revealed that its saboteurs were responsible for the destruction of an Antonov 72 military transport plane on the runway of Ostafievo Airport near Moscow on December 12. Footage published on December 22 showed a drone strike on the Steel Horse oil depot near the city of Oryol. .
GUR said it struck a warehouse in Russia’s Alabuga economic region on December 23, where parts of the Shahed-136 drones were stored. It claimed to have destroyed 65 attack drone fuselages, as well as engines, navigation systems and thermal imaging cameras to produce 400 witness units.
On December 26, the Ukrainian Air Force said it bombed an industrial facility in Russia’s Rostov region that produces fuel for solid rockets. Ukraine said that fuel extracted from the plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky was used in ballistic missiles, including those launched at civilian areas and power plants in Ukraine.
Ukrainian foreign intelligence estimated that Russian refinery downtime increased partly due to Ukrainian air strikes in 2024 to 41 million tons from 36 million tons last year.
Zelensky told Ukrainians that the armed forces would continue this policy.
“We will certainly continue to strike Russian military targets – with drones and missiles, and increasingly with Ukrainian-made ones, specifically targeting Russian military bases and military infrastructure used in this terrorism against our people,” he said in his evening speech on December 21. “Our defense is absolutely fair.”
Drone warfare
Ukraine prioritized the development of unmanned systems during the war to provide manpower.
On December 20, the Ukrainian National Guard said it had successfully conducted a ground operation in Kharkiv using exclusively ground and air robotic systems.
The attack included attack drones equipped with machine guns, suicide drones, and drones capable of mining and clearing mines. The spokesman who described the operation in a television broadcast also spoke of “large multirotor helicopters that can carry a large cargo, for example, an anti-tank mine, and drones from a first-person perspective.” All this is supported and controlled by numerous surveillance drones. That is, we are talking about dozens of units of automated and unmanned equipment simultaneously on a small section of the front.”
Russia has also tried to keep up. The Ukrainian armed forces said they face a new threat in the form of Russian fiber-optic-guided drones. The drones are immune to interference by electronic warfare means, and have proven successful on the battlefield – including in Pokrovsk.
“We missed this moment with fiber optics and, frankly, we don’t know how to deal with it,” said Ivan Sekach, spokesman for the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
A special forces spokesman told ArmyTV that Ukraine was overpowering the new drones by shooting them down with Mavic drones or using their propellers to cut their optical fibers, leaving them uncontrollable.
Ukraine is developing its own fiber-optic drone, the Black Widow Web 10, which its public staff said is in the final stages of approval for use.
Ukraine is developing robotics and drone systems at a rapid pace. Its armed forces introduced a new drone to monitor the battlefield at high altitudes last week. The Shchedryk can fly beyond the range of most Russian air defense weapons and operates day and night.
Autonomy is also a top priority for Ukraine, and a Ukrainian drone company recently reported that it had assembled a prototype of its first FPV drone made exclusively from components manufactured in Ukraine.
